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Leading AI Innovation: Disciplined Bets and Capital Allocation

Lesson 06 of 6

Capital on Fire , How to Stop Burning Money and Start Funding Real Innovation

From Next Moves with AI
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Overview

Innovation is risky — but the way we fund it doesn’t have to be reckless. In this episode, Greg and Daniel unpack why traditional funding models fail innovation and introduce the Next Fund — a smarter, more strategic way to allocate capital. With vivid case studies (France’s solar road failure and Kenya’s M-Pesa triumph), they demonstrate how disciplined funding and adaptive governance lead to game-changing outcomes. Plus, they unveil the Next Fund Manager, an AI-powered tool designed to align capital decisions with long-term strategy, manage risk, and build serious capital.

Leading AI Innovation: Disciplined Bets and Capital Allocation: Capital on Fire , How to Stop Burning Money and Start Funding Real Innovation — full transcript

Cold Open

Greg Galle: Hi, welcome to Next Moves with AI. I’m Greg Galle—

Daniel Buritica: And I’m Daniel Buritica. We’re your co-hosts — and, honestly, your co-conspirators if you’re out there trying to fund the future while the system is still stuck in the past.

Greg Galle: Yeah. If you’ve ever pitched a bold idea and been told, “Cool… where’s your five-year revenue forecast?” — this one’s for you.

Daniel Buritica: Or if you’ve watched your best shot at innovation die in a spreadsheet…

Greg Galle: Then yeah, welcome.

Greg Galle: Today’s episode is called Capital on Fire—because it turns out good ideas aren’t failing.

Greg Galle: They’re being smothered by the wrong system.

Daniel Buritica: We’re trying to fly with tools built for train tracks.

Daniel Buritica: Performance logic doesn’t work in innovation airspace.

Greg Galle: And that mismatch? It’s expensive. And preventable.

Innovation and Performance Are Different Games

Daniel Buritica: Alright, let’s get right into it. Why do orgs keep funding innovation like it’s just another ops line item?

Greg Galle: Because performance systems are the default. They’re built for stability, efficiency, predictability. And they’re great — for what they were built for.

Daniel Buritica: Exactly. Scaling what you already know? Use performance metrics. Optimizing a supply chain? Use ROI, NPV, payback period.

Greg Galle: But discovery? New markets? First-of-its-kind technology? That’s a different game.

Daniel Buritica: And when we force innovation through that same ROI filter…

Greg Galle: Teams end up padding forecasts. Leaders fake confidence. Finance gets nervous. Nobody’s really learning.

Daniel Buritica: Which is wild, right? Because innovation is supposed to be uncertain. That’s the point. It’s not “What’s the return?” — it’s “What can we learn?”

Daniel Buritica: Which brings us to LFI — Learning From Investment. Different scorecard. Different expectations. Whole different operating model.

Real-World Wrecks and Wins

Daniel Buritica: Okay, let’s go to France. 2016. Small town in Normandy. Big headlines.

Greg Galle: Wattway. The solar roadway. Pave the streets with solar panels. Power a village. Start the media frenzy.

Daniel Buritica: Except… no pilot. No staged rollout. Just 5 million euro all-in.

Greg Galle: And the cracks — literal cracks — started almost immediately.

Daniel Buritica: Truck tires. Rain noise. Mud and Shadows. The panels didn’t stand a chance.

Greg Galle: And the output? Promised seven hundred and ninety thousand kilowatts per year. Delivered… maybe 20% of that.

Daniel Buritica: It was a moonshot — funded like a sure thing.

Daniel Buritica: No option value.

Daniel Buritica: No fallback logic.

Daniel Buritica: No capital governance.

Greg Galle: That’s not innovation failing.

Greg Galle: That’s the system failing the innovation.

Daniel Buritica: Now contrast that with Kenya. 2005. Most people are unbanked. But nearly everyone has a mobile phone.

Greg Galle: Vodafone and Safaricom say: “What if you could move money through text?”

Daniel Buritica: Instead of scaling right away, they run a six-month pilot. Funded by the Department for International Development — with learning goals, not performance targets.

Greg Galle: And here’s the magic.

Greg Galle: People used it in ways the designers didn’t expect — mostly to send money to family.

Daniel Buritica: So they pivoted.

Daniel Buritica: Didn’t say, “That’s not what we built.”

Daniel Buritica: They said, “That’s better than what we built.”

Greg Galle: By 2007, M-Pesa was national.

Greg Galle: By 2020, it was moving 50% of Kenya’s GDP.

Daniel Buritica: Because it was funded for discovery — not for delivery.

Greg Galle: And it created all six forms of capital — human, intellectual, political, reputational, social—and financial.

Daniel Buritica: The whole spectrum. And it started with a tiny, focused experiment.

What AI Brings to Innovation Funding

Greg Galle: So where does AI fit in all this?

Daniel Buritica: Right at the crossroads of complexity and decision-making. AI doesn’t replace your gut — it sharpens your signal.

Greg Galle: It helps you track learning velocity — not just spend.

Daniel Buritica: It can say: “This project’s gaining traction with customers.” Or “That one’s stalled — here’s why.”

Greg Galle: And it exposes portfolio bias. You think you’re funding moonshots, but 90% of your spend is incremental upgrades.

Daniel Buritica: So AI becomes your capital intelligence engine.

Daniel Buritica: Real-time visibility.

Daniel Buritica: Fewer surprises.

Daniel Buritica: Smarter bets.

Introducing the Next Fund Manager – AI Assistant

Daniel Buritica: Alright. Let’s talk solutions. Because awareness without action… that’s just noise.

Greg Galle: The Next Fund Manager – AI Assistant is our response to everything we just laid out.

Daniel Buritica: It’s more than a dashboard. It’s how you govern innovation funding like it actually matters.

Greg Galle: We designed it to ask the real questions:

Greg Galle: Are we learning fast enough to keep investing?

Greg Galle: What kind of capital are we building?

Greg Galle: Where are we misaligned with our goals?

Daniel Buritica: And it uses a set of Solve Next’s Think Wrong Drills to help you answer those questions:

Daniel Buritica: The Port-at-a-Glance Drill to capture a portfolio view of innovation opportunities to be funded

Daniel Buritica: The Worthy or Not Drill to define the capital-building priorities for your investments

Daniel Buritica: The Total Impact Drill to evaluate the capital-building potential of individual innovation opportunities

Daniel Buritica: The Stoplight Model to support pause, pivot, or press forward decisions

Daniel Buritica: The Plan B, C, D, E Drill to evaluate the option value being created for your capital-building priorities

Greg Galle: Whether you’re running five pilots or fifty initiatives — the Next Fund Manager gives you structure, clarity, and confidence.

Final Takeaways

Daniel Buritica: Innovation is not a department.

Daniel Buritica: It’s a capability.

Daniel Buritica: And it can be crushed when you force it into performance metrics.

Daniel Buritica: You can’t navigate a jungle with a roadmap. Discovery demands different tools, different questions.

Greg Galle: So stop asking for ROI on ideas that haven’t even been tested. Start investing in Learning From Investment.

Daniel Buritica: And if you need a system for that — the Next Fund Manager is a great place to start.

Greg Galle: It won’t make your decisions for you.

Greg Galle: But it will make them better.

Greg Galle: Smarter.

Greg Galle: More strategic.

Daniel Buritica: So here’s your next move:

Daniel Buritica: Hit the show notes to take the Next Fund Manager out for a free test drive.

Daniel Buritica: Look under the hood.

Greg Galle: And share what you learn. What’s working. What’s not. What’s still stuck.

Daniel Buritica: Connect with us on LinkedIn. We want to hear your stories — your breakthroughs and your burned-out ideas.

Greg Galle: And if this resonated? Subscribe. Share it with your CFO. Your Head of Innovation. Your CEO.

Daniel Buritica: Because the future doesn’t fund itself.

Greg Galle: Until next time — keep experimenting.

Daniel Buritica: And fund it with intelligence.

Daniel Buritica: Good-bye for now.